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The "What's this AGI thing?" Edition

The "What's this AGI thing?" Edition

December 11, 2024

Over the past few weeks, I’ve shared my wild guesses on how Generative AI is transforming Marketing, Finance, HR, and Operations.

This week, we’re zooming out. Wayyyyyy out.

It’s time to talk about AGI - Artificial General Intelligence. You’ve probably heard the term thrown around, often with a mix of hope, hype, and horror. But what exactly is it? How is it different from AI as we know it? And most importantly - what does it mean for us as leaders?

Here’s my take on what AGI is, what it isn’t, and why it matters.

1. What is AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)?

Unlike the AI we use today (like ChatGPT or MidJourney), which excels at specific tasks, AGI is AI that can do "anything" a human can do. It can think, reason, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks - not just one.

To put it simply:

  • AI today = Specialized tools (narrow AI)
  • AGI = A fully independent, thinking "mind" if you will.

AGI would have the ability to learn new skills on its own, solve problems it hasn’t seen before, and adapt to new environments - just like a human. It wouldn’t need to be trained on millions of data points for every task. Instead, it would reason through situations using general knowledge and logic.

2. How Is It Different from AI Today?

Let’s make this clear: We don’t have AGI today. What we have right now is narrow AI —tools that are brilliant at specific tasks, but ineffective outside their domain.

  • Today’s AI: Great at writing emails, summarizing documents, or generating designs — but can’t "understand" the context behind them.
  • AGI: Would understand the task, ask questions if it’s unclear, and potentially even suggest a better approach.

Another way to think of it: Today’s AI is like a chess-playing robot. It’s incredible at chess but can’t play checkers. AGI, on the other hand, would be able to learn chess, checkers, poker, and even invent a new game on its own.

3. What Would AGI Mean for Us?

Here’s where things get spicyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. People have big feelings about AGI. Some are excited by the possibilities, while others see it as the ultimate existential risk.

As you know, I like to talk about the good, the bad and the ugly. Here’s a breakdown of both sides:

🌞 The Optimistic View

  • Supercharged Productivity: Imagine an AGI that could automate entire workflows or run complex simulations to solve global issues like climate change.
  • Scientific Breakthroughs: AGI could unlock medical research, discover cures for diseases, or design materials we’ve never even dreamed of.
  • Human-AI Partnership: Some believe AGI could become a trusted co-pilot for our work and personal lives, enabling each of us to do "more with less."

🌩️ The Existential Fear

  • Loss of Control: If AGI can think, reason, and make its own choices, how do we ensure it doesn’t prioritize its own goals over ours?
  • Job Displacement: If AGI can learn any job, what happens to human work? Unlike AI, which only replaces specific tasks, AGI could, in theory, replace entire professions.
  • Runaway AI: The biggest fear is AGI that becomes misaligned with human goals. This is the classic “AI takes over the world” scenario seen in movies - "Hasta La Vista, baby!" (I really wanted to say this in a newsletter).

4. Should You Care About AGI?

Right now, AGI doesn’t exist. Some people think we’re 50 years away. Others think we’ll see it in the next 2. Here's why I think it's worth every leader's attention:

  • The Conversation Is Shaping Reality: Companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind are actively researching AGI. When such well-funded companies are focused on something, it’s probably worth paying attention.
  • The Impact Will Be Massive: Even if AGI is years away, the shifts in power, control, and responsibility are enormous. Leaders who understand it now will be better prepared when the time comes.

I'll see you next week